Nexa | Guidance 2025-2027
Guidance is based on several assumptions and estimates and is subject to the continuous evaluation of several factors, including but not limited to metal prices; operational performance; maintenance and input costs; and exchange rates.
Nexa will continue to monitor risks associated with global supply chain disruptions, which could be exacerbated, among other factors, by the ongoing Russia-Ukraine war, the Middle-East conflict, unusual weather conditions, the global recession, and its potential impact on the demand for our products, inflationary cost pressure, metal price volatility, local community or union protests, and changes to the political situations or regulatory frameworks in the countries in which we operate that could affect our production levels and our costs. Additionally, the evolving trade policies and tariff changes globally, including recent tariff increases on Canada, Mexico, and China, could impact our cost structure, supply chain, and overall market dynamics. Nexa will continue to assess the implications of these trade policies on our operations and financial outlook. Refer to “Risks and Uncertainties” and “Cautionary Statement on Forward-Looking Statements” for further information.
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Production and Sales
| Metal contained (in concentrate) |
2025e |
2026e | 2027e | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zinc | kt | 311 | – | 351 | 317 | – | 372 | 339 | – | 397 | |||
| Cerro Lindo | 80 | – | 88 | 82 | – | 94 | 81 | – | 95 | ||||
| El Porvenir | 56 | – | 62 | 42 | – | 49 | 56 | – | 62 | ||||
| Atacocha | 10 | – | 12 | 17 | – | 20 | 13 | – | 21 | ||||
| Vazante | 132 | – | 145 | 126 | – | 145 | 124 | – | 144 | ||||
| Aripuanã | 35 | – | 45 | 50 | – | 65 | 67 | – | 75 | ||||
| Copper | kt | 29 | – | 35 | 25 | – | 30 | 26 | – | 29 | |||
| Cerro Lindo | 24 | – | 27 | 20 | – | 24 | 23 | – | 25 | ||||
| El Porvenir | 0.3 | – | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | 0.3 | 0.3 | – | 0.5 | ||||
| Aripuanã | 5.1 | – | 8.2 | 4.4 | – | 6.5 | 3.2 | – | 3.8 | ||||
| Lead | kt | 59 | – | 70 | 65 | – | 76 | 64 | – | 79 | |||
| Cerro Lindo | 11 | – | 12 | 10 | – | 12 | 11 | – | 13 | ||||
| El Porvenir | 21 | – | 26 | 21 | – | 25 | 21 | – | 26 | ||||
| Atacocha | 13 | – | 13 | 15 | – | 17 | 9 | – | 13 | ||||
| Vazante | 0.7 | – | 0.8 | 1.0 | – | 1.2 | 1.0 | – | 1.1 | ||||
| Aripuanã | 14 | – | 17 | 18 | – | 21 | 21 | – | 27 | ||||
| Silver | MMoz | 11 | – | 12 | 10 | – | 12 | 10 | – | 12 | |||
| Cerro Lindo | 3.9 | – | 4.2 | 3.0 | – | 3.4 | 3.1 | – | 3.4 | ||||
| El Porvenir | 4.2 | – | 4.8 | 4.0 | – | 4.7 | 4.2 | – | 4.8 | ||||
| Atacocha | 1.3 | – | 1.4 | 1.2 | – | 1.4 | 0.8 | – | 1.2 | ||||
| Vazante | 0.4 | – | 0.6 | 0.3 | – | 0.4 | 0.3 | – | 0.4 | ||||
| Aripuanã | 1.1 | – | 1.5 | 1.5 | – | 1.8 | 1.8 | – | 2.1 | ||||
For the forecasted periods, consolidated average zinc head grade is expected to be in the range of 2.97% and 3.37%, consolidated average copper head grade is expected to be in the range of 0.28% and 0.35%, and consolidated average lead head grade is expected to be in the range of 0.61% and 0.74%.
| Smelting sales | 2025e | 2026e | 2027e | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zinc metal | kt | 530 | – | 555 | 545 | – | 565 | 545 | – | 565 |
| Cajamarquilla | 320 | – | 330 | 320 | – | 330 | 320 | – | 330 | |
| Três Marias | 145 | – | 155 | 150 | – | 155 | 150 | – | 155 | |
| Juiz de Fora | 65 | – | 70 | 75 | – | 80 | 75 | – | 80 | |
| Zinc oxide | kt | 30 | – | 35 | 35 | – | 40 | 35 | – | 40 |
| Três Marias | 30 | – | 35 | 35 | – | 40 | 35 | – | 40 | |
| Metal Sales | kt | 560 | – | 590 | 580 | – | 605 | 580 | – | 605 |
For the forecasted periods, the smelters are expected to operate at slightly lower-than-normal utilization rates, with sales aligning closely to production levels. These estimates do not account for the resale of third-party material. Metal sales volume at the midpoint of the 2025 guidance range is projected to be lower compared to 2024. For 2026, total metal sales are projected to increase by 3% compared to 2025, ranging between 580-605kt, while remaining at similar levels in 2027.
2025 Cash costs
Cash costs for 2025 are based on several assumptions, including but not limited to:
- Zinc and other metals production volumes;
- Commodity prices (Zn: US$1.29/lb, Cu: US$4.22/lb, Pb: US$0.94/lb, Ag: US$31.0/oz, Au: US$2,600/oz);
- Foreign exchange rates (BRL/USD: 5.85 and Soles/USD: 3.85); and
- 2025 zinc treatment charges (“TCs”) of US$125/t concentrate.
| Mining operating costs | Cost ROM (US$/t) 2025e |
Cash Cost (US$/lb) 2025e |
|||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mining Cash Cost¹ | 49.1 | – | 55.2 | 0.01 | – | 0.23 | |
| Cerro Lindo | 41.5 | – | 45.4 | (0.49) | – | (0.30) | |
| El Porvenir | 63.0 | – | 69.5 | (0.03) | – | 0.18 | |
| Atacocha | 34.5 | – | 38.3 | (1.16) | – | (1.07) | |
| Vazante | 50.4 | – | 56.1 | 0.46 | – | 0.52 | |
| Aripuanã | 69.0 | – | 86.6 | (0.10) | – | 0.69 | |
(1) C1 Weighted Cash cost net of by-products credits is measured with respect to zinc sold per mine.
- Mining: In 2025, consolidated run-of-mine mining costs at mid-range of the guidance are expected to increase 16% year-over-year, primarily due to the inclusion of Aripuanã’s run-of-mine mining costs estimates for the first time, along with higher costs at Cerro Lindo and Vazante.
| Smelting operating costs | Conversion Cost (US$/lb) 2025e |
Cash Cost (US$/lb) 2025e |
|||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Smelting Cash Cost2 | 0.29 | – | 0.33 | 1.16 | – | 1.33 | |
| Cajamarquilla | 0.28 | – | 0.31 | 1.08 | – | 1.24 | |
| Três Marias | 0.24 | – | 0.29 | 1.27 | – | 1.47 | |
| Juiz de Fora | 0.42 | – | 0.50 | 1.22 | – | 1.40 | |
(2) C1 Weighted Cash cost net of by-products credits is measured with respect to zinc sold per smelter.
- Smelting: In 2025, conversion costs are expected to remain similar to 2024, primarily due to anticipated lower TC levels throughout the year. However, slightly lower production and sales volumes, particularly at Juiz de Fora, combined with higher variable costs at Cajamarquilla, are expected to be offset by higher sales volume in Peru and improved performance at Três Marias (versus 2024), as wells as reduced variable costs at this smelter. Consolidated smelting cash costs are projected to increase in 2025 compared to 2024, mainly attributed to production adjustments driven by lower TC levels, which are intended to preserve margins.
2025 CAPEX
In 2025, our updated CAPEX guidance is US$347 million. Sustaining investments are expected to total US$316 million, with mining accounting for US$225 million and smelting accounting for US$89 million.
In the mining segment, sustaining capital expenditures are primarily allocated as follows: US$105 million for underground mine development, US$44 million related to Cerro Pasco’s tailings pumping system (Phase I of the project), US$9 million for expanding tailings filter capacity at Aripuanã, including the acquisition and installation of a fourth filter, US$34 million for tailings storage facility (“TSF”) enhancements, and US$4 million for heavy mobile equipment (“HME”) maintenance. The remaining amount is expected to cover general maintenance.
In the smelting segment, the majority of sustaining capital expenditures are primarily allocated as follows: US$46 million for general maintenance, US$20 million for TSF, which includes US$8 million dedicated to the improvement of the dry stacking method at the Três Marias smelter, US$15 million for roaster maintenance, and US$8 million for the replacement of electro-filters at Cajamarquilla.
Health, safety and environmental (“HS&E”) capital expenses are forecasted to be US$18 million.
Other Non-Expansion Capital Expenses are forecasted at US$11 million, including US$1 million in non-recurring IT expenses for the second phase of the Enterprise Resource Planning (“ERP”) modernization program, US$1 million for the biofuel project at Três Marias, and US$4 million allocated for various automation projects across all units.
| CAPEX (US$ million) |
2025 Guidance |
|
|---|---|---|
| Non Expansion | 344 | |
| Sustaining (1) | 316 | |
| HSE | 18 | |
| Others (2) | 11 | |
| Expansion projects (3) | 3 | |
| TOTAL | 347 |
(¹) Investments in tailing dams are included in sustaining expenses.
(²) Modernization, IT and others.
(³) Includes several projects in Vazante to improve operational performance.
2025 Exploration & Project Evaluation and Other Expenses
As part of our long-term strategy, we continued to maintain our efforts to replace and increase mineral reserves and resources. In line with this, we plan to advance exploration efforts focused on identifying new ore bodies and upgrading resource classifications through infill drilling campaigns.
For 2025, we plan to invest US$70 million in exploration. Of this amount, US$50 million is expected to be allocated to mineral exploration expenses, primarily targeting greenfield and brownfield projects.
Our project evaluation expense guidance is set at US$18 million, which includes an IT system simplification project and a project to extend the life of the tailings dam at the El Porvenir mine. The remaining amount is expected to fund corporate IT initiatives, potential growth projects, and other projects across our business units.
Additionally, we plan to invest US$6 million in technology aimed at enhancing operational efficiency and US$14 million to support the social and economic development of our host communities.
| Other operating expenses (US$ million) |
2025 Guidance |
||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Exploration | 70 | ||||||
| Mineral exploration | 50 | ||||||
| Mineral rights | 10 | ||||||
| Sustaining (mine development) | 9 | ||||||
| Project Evaluation | 18 | ||||||
| Exploration & Project Evaluation | 88 | ||||||
| Other | 20 | ||||||
| Technology | 4 | ||||||
| Communities | 17 | ||||||
Note: Exploration and project evaluation expenses consider several stages of development, from mineral potential definition, R&D, and subsequent scoping and pre-feasibility studies (FEL1 and FEL2).